Australia looks to France for SSHNs & Nuke Weapons

Middle power Australia can no longer assume we are protected by the US nuclear umbrella. In fact Trump's radical shift to Russia is instructive. In a new SSN concept nuclear armed hypersonic (H) missiles on SSHNs might, for middle powers, be the deterrent of choice against China and Russia. I thank the commenters from this article for the words below. 

With the Russia-US alliance (RUS) the democratic world is losing confidence in US security guarantees. This includes Australia regarding the QUAD and AUKUS. There are multiple examples coming out now of US isolationism which is more manifestly pro-Russian https://news.online.ua/en/the-us-is-ending-support-for-ukrainian-f-16s-but-there-is-a-way-out-891472/
and
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/08/america-vetoes-g7-proposal-to-combat-russias-shadow-fleet-of-oil-tankers

Trump and Vance lead the surrender to Russia. But at the US Defense coalface it is Elbridge Colby, Trump’s nominee for Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, who flags the end of the AUKUS Virginia option. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/09/trump-pick-for-pentagon-says-selling-submarines-to-australia-would-be-crazy-if-taiwan-tensions-flare

Colby is likely to kill the Virginias for Australia in the near term. This is even before the US Presidential decision of the early 2030s kills the Virginia option - responding to USN advice that the US until the 2040s will lack Virginias even for protection of the US heartland. China's long awaited mass protection of SSNs and SSBNs will outstrip America's already low rate of SSN availability. Meanwhile the UK industrial base appears unable to deliver SSN-AUKUS before 2045 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c871e41751yo  

In any case British SSN availability to Australia relies on US techno-legal permissions. US veto power over British autonomy is underwritten by the US developed and Kings Bay, US, supplied Trident IIs/D5s which are Britain's only nuclear warhead delivery type. 

At the same time, the current Australian Government and Opposition, at the public level, are in denial over the emerging Russia-US alliance. Australia’s vain Defence Minister Marles has always placed his political career over responsibility. See his denials here https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/transcripts/2025-03-06/television-interview-abc-730. Australia's Canberra capital is, publicly at least, in a parallel universe of vain hope, that doesn't address the new Russia US alliance.

Unfortunately Japan and South Korea (SK) rely on US nuclear protection even more than Australia. Japanese Taigeis and SK KSS-IIIs, like all conventional submarines, lack the speed and range to be a viable Australian strategic weapon against China or Russia. Israel, as well, relies on US strategic and political protection. India, despite its nationalist protestations of autonomy, is reliant on Russia for nuclear submarine technology and, more secretly, Russian nuclear weapons tech.

Only less aligned country France https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c871e41751yo might sell nuclear submarines and nuclear weapons to Australia for a price. As Australia is now desperate - this runs contrary to my France can't help February 2025 articles here and here.

Peter Coates

US shift in alliance triggers Australia's

In view of the Russia-US alliance (RUS) Australia looks to China, free of any pangs as to our traditional links or kinship with America. [1] considering [2]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Labor_Party#World_War_II_and_beyond

[2] https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/china-versus-america-on-global-trade/#map

Australia's newfound knowledge of Virginia SSN technology will be of considerable value in the transfer of technology prior to our purchase of Type 095 SSNs. [3]

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_095_submarine

Singapore Defense Update 2025: Navy gets 2 more Invincible class Submarines, will launch first MRCV in 2025!

In his speech during Singapore Parliament's 2025 Supply Debate, Singapore's Defence Minister Dr. Ng Eng Hen announced a plan to purchase two more Invincible-class (Type-218SG) submarines, launch the first Multi-Role Combat Vessel, and purchase new Maritime Patrol Aircraft.

RSS Invincible, image courtesy: Republic of Singapore Navy

Two more Invincible-class (Type-218SG) Submarines

Minister Ng's announcement did not reveal any specific details on when the two new submarines will be ordered or delivered, but as of March 2025, two Invincible-class boats are in commission in the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN), while two boats remain in Kiel, Germany, one for crew training while the last boat fits out. Dr. Ng has indicated that he expects these four submarines to fully commission by 2028.

Considering the original two Invincible-class boats were ordered in 2013, the new third batch should see significant modifications to the design and incorporate new technologies, such as lithium-ion batteries and increased Unmanned Underwater Vessel (UUV) storage. 

The RSN's current commissioned submarine fleet consists of two Invincible-class and two Archer-class (ex-Vastergotland A17) boats, as the last two Challenger-class boats retired in late 2024, leaving the RSN with four operational AIP boats.

As I mentioned in my June 2023 article on the state of Singapore's submarine forces, the two Archer-class boats were purchased from Kockums in 2005, undertook a major refit that included the addition of a Stirling AIP module, and commissioned in 2011 and 2013. This should enable the Archer-class to remain viable boats into the early 2030s.

First MRCV to launch in late 2025

First MRCV keel laying, image: Naval News

Since my August 2024 update on Singapore's MultRole Combat Vessel (MRCV), the first keel was laid in late October 2024, and Dr. Ng has now confirmed that this vessel, which is still unnamed, will launch by the end of 2025. This is in-line with the previously mentioned 2028 commissioning date. 

My own opinion on the speed of the MRCV program is due to two primary factors:

1. The Victory-class missile corvettes are now 33 years old and worn out.

2. Once the MRCV construction program is completed, the yard will then switch to the production of the still mysterious Joint Multi Mission Ship (JMMS) program.

We should find out more about the MRCV program and perhaps JMMS, as the upcoming IMDEX Asia 2025.

New Maritime Patrol Aircraft

RSAF Fokker-50 MPA: image courtesy Republic of Singapore Air Force

Dr. Ng also announced a replacement program for Singapore's elderly Fokker-50 MPA, with the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) "looking intently at appropriate replacements", including the Boeing P8 Poseidon and the Airbus C295. 

The RSAF has operated 5 Fokker-50 MPA since 1993, and their replacement could include long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicles, as there has been rumours for a number of years that Singapore has purchased Elbit Hermes 900 MALE UAVs.

China's Warship FONOP Near Australia is a Reaction to USN Taiwan Strait FONOP

PETE COMMENT

Already the US fixation with the Taiwan Strait is putting Australia under strain.

China has undertaken a standard Freedom of Navigation operation (FONOP) in waters close to Australia.

The US Navy frequently FONOPs against China, eg: in the South China Sea. The USN more blatantly FONOPs through the Taiwan Strait with US ships sailing close to mainland China. The US Navy's last Taiwan Strait FONOP was in early February 2025, see https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-military-monitored-us-ship-crossing-taiwan-strait-state-media-reports-2025-02-11/.

The Chinese flotilla (details below) that sailed south close to Australia can be seen as a reaction to the US Navy's Taiwan Strait FONOP of early February 2025.

Military HQ in Canberra are aware of the above connection. But it is politically inconvenient for Marles or Albanese to make this public.

ARTICLE

Defence correspondent Andrew Greene and Foreign Affairs correspondent Stephen

 Dziedzic for Australia's ABC News reported February 26, 2025

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-26/chinese-warship-deployment-designed-to-be-provocative/104982224 

"Intelligence chief says Chinese warship deployment designed to be 'provocative'"

One of the flotilla is the PLA-N Renhai-class cruiser Zunyi (Pennant Number 107) seen here in the Solomon Sea, northeast of Australia. (Photo Courtesy Australian Defence Force via ABC)

"In short:

Defence officials believe a Chinese [Type 093] nuclear-powered submarine likely accompanied the People's Liberation Army-Navy flotilla during its deployment off Australia's coast.

It comes as commercial airline pilots who flew over the Tasman Sea last week told the ABC they monitored radio communications from the Chinese warships to military surveillance aircraft as far back as a week ago.

What's next?

Defence said it continues to "closely" track the Chinese flotilla, which had re-entered Australia's exclusive economic zone on Tuesday.

He also described its recent live-fire exercises as unprecedented and said they demonstrated "China's growing capability to project military power into our immediate region" was "now matched by an increasing intent to do so".

Appearing before a parliamentary committee on Monday night, the [Australian Office of National Intelligence] ONI boss observed this was "the furthest south a People's Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) task group has operated".

"We judge Beijing intends to normalise this sort of presence, shape the responses of those in the region, and observe and learn from our reactions," he told the Senate estimates hearing.

"The largest and least transparent military build-up since the Second World War will mean the PLA will be able to operate at greater distances from mainland China, in greater numbers, including into Australia's immediate seas and skies," he said.

On Tuesday, Defence confirmed the PLA-N flotilla had re-entered Australia's exclusive economic zone, where it was being closely tracked as it operated around 160 nautical miles east of Hobart.

One military figure, not authorised to speak publicly, told the ABC there was a "working assumption" that a taskforce comprising three warships so far from the Chinese mainland for weeks could have submarine support for at least part of the deployment.

Other navies that boast nuclear-powered submarines, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, are known to regularly use them during lengthy and complex warship missions to gather valuable intelligence on potential adversaries.

Meanwhile, commercial airline pilots who flew over the Tasman Sea last week have told the ABC they monitored radio communications from the Chinese warships to military surveillance aircraft as far back as a week ago, warning about possible live-firing activity.

Chinese 'live fire' military exercise forced 49 flight diversions

Photo shows A Virgin plane flying in the sky in Brisbane.

Airservices Australia representatives tell a parliamentary hearing that almost 50 flights were forced to divert after China signalled it was conducting the hazardous drills in busy international airspace.

"The Chinese vessel made a broadcast on 121.5 [VHF frequency] about a live firing drill, telling the NZ aircraft to remain at a safe distance," one international airline pilot told the ABC when describing a flight on Tuesday, February 18.

"The NZ aircraft replied that under international law they can be there, it occurred a couple of times. Many civilian aircraft heard it and told the Chinese to 'go away.'"

This week aviation officials revealed they were first informed that a Chinese live-firing exercise had begun when a Virgin Australia pilot relayed warnings they had picked up mid-flight via an emergency radio frequency."

[Also see "NZ defence minister warns of 'extremely capable' Chinese warships in Tasman Sea" of February 24, 2025 at

 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-24/chinese-warship-missiles-in-tasman-sea-nz-minister-warning/104973290 ]

Australia's Eris-1 Rocket Launch Delayed till March 2025?

Above is Gilmour Space's Eris-1 rocket at the Bowen Orbital Spaceport in Queensland, Australia. A rocket that size has long range dual-use missile potential. The photo from Gilmour's February 3, 2025 Media Release.

See APDR for "Gilmour Space Technologies has announced a launch window starting ‘no earlier than’ March 15 [2025] for the maiden flight of Eris, the first Australian-designed and built rocket aiming for orbit. The news follows final airspace approvals from the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) and Airservices Australia, clearing the last regulatory hurdle before launch."

The launch will take place from the Bowen Orbital Spaceport in far north Queensland, Australia. 

Why the delay? 

• The launch was delayed to allow for additional testing and verification
  https://www.innovationaus.com/countdown-gilmour-space-closes-in-on-testflight-one-mission/
• The company wanted to give its team a break over Christmas 2024.
• The company wanted to ensure mission safety and success

About the Eris-1 rocket 

• The Eris-1 is a small orbital launch vehicle that can carry payloads of up to 305 kg into low earth orbit [scroll down here https://www.gspace.com/launch ]

• It has three stages and uses hybrid propulsion technologies
• The Eris-1 is 23 meters in length and has a mass of 34 tonnes at lift off

About the launch permit 

• The Australian Government issued Gilmour Space Technologies with an Australian launch permit in November 2024 https://spacenews.com/gilmore-space-secures-license-for-first-orbital-launch/

• This permit is the first ever issued by the Australian Government for a commercial orbital launch vehicle

Pete Comment

It is probably just coincidental that the 2m diameter of Eris-1's first (ie. lowest) stage (scroll down here) is almost identical to the 2.11 diameter of the first stage of a Trident II submarine launched ballistic missile (see right sidebar).

Submarine Hypersonic Missile Idea Gains Traction

Andrew Greene, Defence Correspondent for Australia’s ABC News has written the excellent article below. It includes a major section on Hypersonic missiles for future Australian SSNs.

PETE COMMENT

I have written extensively about hypersonic missiles for the last 13 years https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/search?q=hypersonic in connection with future Australian Virginia SSNs.

See my “Comments” here https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2008/10/hypersonic-missile-research-and.html

Preferably Australia's future hypersonic missiles should be nuclear tipped when the threat from China warrants it - say in the 2040s.

See my discussion of Australian Virginia or UK-AUKUS SSHNs (H for Hypersonic missiles) instead of the terms SSGNs or SSNs for Australia. See my articles https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/07/sshns-or-xluuvs-are-australias.html and https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/05/australias-nuclear-weapon-sshns-2030s.html .

Our Hypersonic missile warheads might need to be developed by Australia or preferably sourced from the US under yet another US-Ally nuclear sharing agreement. 

The US shares nuclear weapons with five NATO countries: Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands not to mention dangerously with NATO country  Turkey https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing. This is separate from the 1958  US-UK  nuclear weapon sharing arrangement.

ARTICLE

By defence correspondent Andrew Greene wrote at Australia’s ABC News on January 17, 2025 and at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-17/us-congressional-analysis-blunt-on-aukus-difficulties/104826856

"Congressional analysis lays bare AUKUS challenges as Australia looks to arm future submarines with hypersonics"

• Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead (left) insists [on the political mantra
   not shared by submarine professionals in the USN and RAN that]
   “strong and tangible” progress is being made on AUKUS [Virginia acquisition]. 
  ([Photo Supplied by]: Department of Defence)
  
  In short:
  
  Details of the problems being faced by US shipyards to speed up submarine
   production for AUKUS have been detailed in a new report to Congress.
  
  [see [US] Congressional Budget Office January 2025 [Report] 
  An Analysis of the Navy’s 2025 Shipbuilding Plan

   https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61155#_idTextAnchor054 
  -> Plans for Specific Ship Programs -> Submarines.]

  Budgetary analysis warns delays on new Columbia-class ballistic missile
   submarines could hamper transfer of Virginia-class boats for Australia
  
  What's next?

Senior military figures insist "strong and tangible" progress being made on AUKUS and future Australian submarines are "highly likely" to carry hypersonic missiles. 

New budgetary analysis for the US Congress has outlined the difficulties America's shipyards face to increase nuclear-powered submarine production so that Virginia-class boats can eventually be sold to Australia under the $368 billion AUKUS program.

The blunt assessment of US industrial challenges has been published as senior military figures express confidence that the ambitious AUKUS endeavour will succeed and predict future Australian submarines are “highly likely” to carry hypersonic missiles.

Under the AUKUS plan Australia is expecting to receive at least three second-hand Virginia-class boats from the US beginning in the early 2030s, before eventually building a new class of boat with the United Kingdom known as SSN-AUKUS.

Trump administration will back AUKUS submarines deal, says Rubio

Photo shows Two men with their arms around each other

Donald Trump's pick for secretary of state appears to have ended months of speculation on whether the incoming administration would back the AUKUS submarine deal, saying it will have Trump's strong support.

Before Australia receives its first Virginia-class boat in 2032, the US government must increase its current annual SSN production rate from roughly 1.2 boats to 2.3, so that it can maintain its overall submarine force numbers while transferring others.

However, in its latest analysis, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) details how the US Navy's "priority" program to build new larger Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) is behind schedule and could further delay Virginia-class (SSN) production.

"It would be very difficult and expensive for the U.S submarine industry to increase production of attack submarines while also building 1 Columbia class ship per year," the CBO document published in January states.

"Columbia class SSBNs are two and one-half times the size of Virginia class SSNs, and the amount of work required to produce ships scales roughly with ship size."

"Moreover, SSBNs are the Navy's highest acquisition priority. As a result, the sale of SSNs to Australia could reduce the number of attack submarines available to the Navy."

The CBO report titled An Analysis of the Navy’s 2025 Shipbuilding Plan'also discusses the potential strategic advantages and disadvantages to the US for giving up some of its submarine capability to its alliance partner Australia under AUKUS.

"That loss might even be more than offset because the Australian submarines would be based in the Western Pacific region and therefor could respond more quickly to any conflict with China over Taiwan or other issues in the South China Sea.

"However, Australia would control its own submarines, and their participation in any particular conflict would not be guaranteed," the report warns, citing comments made by Defence Minister Richard Marles in 2023.

AUKUS unravelling: Greens

Greens Senator and outspoken AUKUS critic David Shoebridge described the report as "damning", claiming it is further proof that Australia's nuclear-submarine endeavour is unravelling.

"This congressional budget office report states a hard truth, that any submarines the US sells Australia under AUKUS must come from a seriously limited supply needed by the US Navy.

"Despite the billions invested, including from Australia, the US shipbuilding industry is nowhere near producing enough nuclear submarines for their needs with no credible way to fix that.

"In fact, the US submarine shipbuilding troubles will only grow in the next decade as it has to produce a whole new class of extra large Columbia class nuclear missile submarines as its first priority."

Hypersonic missiles 'highly likely'

Ahead of the publication of the CBO analysis in Washington, the head of the Australian Submarine Agency (ASA), Vice-Admiral Jonathan Mead, said he was confident the AUKUS nuclear submarine endeavour was progressing well.

"There is a lot of work that happens behind the scenes, some of it is sensitive work but we are making strong and tangible progress in delivering this capability," Vice-Admiral Mead said.

Speaking to ABC Radio National’s Global Roaming podcast late last year, the ASA director said it was "highly likely" that the new SSN-AUKUS submarines being designed with the UK would have the capability to launch hypersonic missiles.

"I think it gives you greater capability, many countries are embarking upon hypersonic missiles, there's a lot of work being done around the world on hypersonic technology.

"Hypersonic missiles are really just a variation of some current class of missiles except that they have far greater speed and manoeuvrability and are harder to intercept."

Late last year the ABC revealed former defence secretary Dennis Richardson had been asked by Mr Marles to examine the operations of the ASA amid concerns raised from within and outside the organisation."